In an article titled “Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin” The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics – aka Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – writes their “best guess is that because Trump’s polling position is better than 2016 and 2020, it’s likelier that he’s at least not being as underestimated as much as he was in previous elections, if he is being underestimated at all. For one thing, other indicators do not really suggest that we’re in the midst of an electoral environment that is much stronger for Republicans than the past two elections (those indicators include special elections in 2023 and 2024 and the recent Washington state top-two primary).”

“While Democrats have now nominated three different opponents against Donald Trump, Trump himself will be on the ballot for a third straight time. It just doesn’t seem likely to us that he will do markedly better than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which is what would happen if the polls were biased against him again. The third installment of the Trump trilogy will likely look a fair amount like the first two installments as opposed to being dramatically different; this is why we’ve long expected a close and competitive election, with only the last few weeks of Joe Biden’s candidacy really making us seriously consider the possibility of Trump doing substantially better than his previous presidential runs. The close polls suggest a close election: That seems realistic.”