While not a 1:1 because plenty of registered Democrats vote MAGA and to a smaller degree lots of registered Republicans vote for D candidates every election – among whatever other circumstantial caveats you want to throw in – the early vote numbers coming out of Iowa and North Carolina are still worth noticing. Per CNN, registered Dems outvoted registered Republicans by nearly 28 points Thursday, improving from just a 2-point edge on the first day of early voting in 2024.

Republican first-day early voter turnout is down friggin 68 percent from 2024, while Dems and indies are down just 27 and 36 percent respectively. Obviously all sets are going to drop off from a presidential year to a midterm year, so it would’ve been more helpful if CNN had also compared it to 2018 and 2022 first day early voting turnout, but they could do worse (a lot worse) and it’s still impressive to see that GOP voters were well under half as likely to show up on Day One as Ds.

Less impressive but still light years from discouraging is Dem performance in Iowa: 23 +D over Republicans, up from just +3 in 2024, turnout dropoff at 15 and 48 percent respectively. Tar Heel former Gov Roy Cooper is virtually a lock to flip the seat held by retiring loser Thom Tillis while Iowa Dem Josh Turek is a longer shot to beat MAGA Congresswoman Ashley Hinson in the fight for the seat held by retiring loser Joni Ernst. One wonders how the race would’ve looked had Ernst stayed.