A final round of CNN/SSRS likely voter surveys in Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas finds the states’ respective Democratic US Senate candidates Adam Hamilton, Troy Jackson, Abdul El-Sayed, and James Talarico all at 49 percent against their MAGA rivals Roger Marshall at 45 percent, Susan Collins – also 45 percent, Mike Rogers 42 percent, and Picasso Face Ken Paxton at 43 percent, with the latter two races putting the Dem candidates’ leads outside the pollster’s margin of error.
For perspective, in 2022 CNN/SSRS was pretty goddamned accurate, correctly calling the winners in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin’s Senate and gubernatorial races in their final pre-election surveys, and the only noteworthy miss was that they undershot Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s margin over deranged idiot MAGA challenger Tudor Dixon, with the polling finding Gretch at 52 percent support to Dix’s 46. Whitmer won reelection by 10.6 percent. Every other call was within 2 percent of the results, a stat that’s more of interest to polling nerds than the partisans in the audience who tend to care far more about whether a polling lead translates to an actual win than whether the anticipated margin is correct.