This week in politics has been so surreal that it’s been more difficult than anticipated to even begin to process it because, well, holy fucking shit. Over the years people on this side of the aisle and on this site got so used to disappointments and cruel twists of fate that it’s just hard to know what to do when something like this happens. Even when going back almost fully a year ago already there were certain signs that, to a certain not-real-journalist, even then seemed unmistakeable.

But expectations were managed and there will soon be a scorecard of National Zero’s correct calls from over the last two years. More important however is the future and all the possibilities it now holds due to the absolute fucking bloodbath that Tuesday was in the history of American politics. As douchey as it so often is to end a headline with a question mark, sometimes it’s a necessary evil. Or not even evil at all because it reflects a sincere uncertainty worth examining and gaming out, rather than some chode Slate or Atlantic writer’s masturbatory exercise in oversharing his inner neuroses.

Because between the all-but-certain-to-be 56 D – 44 R US Senate next year and the map in 2028, it’s really worth asking whether Democrats will need to lower the chamber’s 60-vote threshold to enact their most ambitious reforms – demolishing the Roberts Supreme Court, ending Citizens United, partisan gerrymandering, the free flow of foreign blood money to corrupt shitbags here, adding new states with reliable Dem electorates to the union (the Virgin Islands might be more reliable than Puerto Rico), expanding the House of Representatives well beyond just however many new states are added, and so on. You know, all the reforms needed to break the permanently-entrenched advantages Republicans had that allowed Trump to rise and return to power.

For years, every conversation about such lasting changes was always predicated on having a Dem Senate majority large enough to vote in unison to change the chamber’s rules. As we saw in 2021 and 2022, having 50 Ds plus the vice presidency wasn’t enough because DINO now-former Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin were (probably) bribed into opposing abolishing the filibuster and open the door to statutory remedies to post-2020 election voter suppression, partisan gerrymandering, and the Supreme Court’s draconian Dobbs decision that allowed hard red states to enact total abortion bans. The window closed after 2022 when the GOP took the House majority.

I’d love to keep the filibuster and make filibustering senators speak

That’s how the filibuster is supposed to work—protecting robust debate in the Senate

It no longer does that; it now forestalls debate

Enforce the filibuster

Or nuke it

The status quo empowers Democrats https://t.co/wl3tl50hcS pic.twitter.com/9I5fsicoAi

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) April 22, 2026

Then these assholes entered the chat.

It’s hard to tell how much of this was performative. Or, scratch that, it was entirely performative with the exceptions of Utahn Mike Lee, who’s out of his fucking mind, and of course Donald Trump, who repeatedly over the last two years posted dense, frenzied screeds like this:

You can give Trump this: He REALLY internalized the implications of the filibuster’s end and repeatedly demonstrated an intimate knowledge of the politics around it. It’s legitimately impressive in its own way, that this fucking idiot who thinks “mutilization” is a word, that tariffs don’t increase consumer prices, and so on, can also be as fluent as your median Beltway media pundit is on a once-arcane concept deep within the province of the Congressional Quarterly-subscribing nerds.

At the same time he writes Dems “were unable to pull it off because of Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona” and then publicly commands Republicans to do what those two scumbags would not. So you can remove whatever credit you might’ve given to Trump.

And also start asking if the filibuster’s even going to matter after 2028. It may not.

“Every Senate map is bad for the Dems. There are no good ones. They all fucking suck. When you string 2026 and 2028 together however you can see 50 if not 51 seats as gettable,” this site wrote in a July 2025 article about Chuck Schumer’s efforts to recruit then-former-Ohio Dem Senator, now Senator-Elect Sherrod Brown. Terrible call by National Zero there, but let’s not dwell on it because the 2028 map actually sucks for Republicans. It even kind of did before Tuesday as it’s the same as 2022, the year they put up Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and that Reptilian guy from Arizona, losing all those races, a net loss of one seat.

So let’s start with the Dems’ defense seats, indicated with the silly green shield icons above:

Sherrod Brown, Ohio: Brown outperformed Kamala Harris by 7 percent in 2024, losing by 4 when the former veep lost the state by 11 percent, then defeating Jon Husted 50 to 45 percent in his comeback bid this week. So Brown is unquestionably the most endangered of any Senate Dem in 2028, especially if Vice President Couchfucker is the Republican presidential nominee. Jaydee could get crushed nationally but Ohio’s still his home state and he’d be favored to win it.

Vacant, Pennsylvania: John Fetterman, one of the greatest disappointments in the last decade of Dem politics, will not be on the 2028 general election ballot as the Democratic US Senate nominee. How and why is in question, but that outcome is as certain as the day is long. Thus “Vacant” and depending on both the presidential tickets and the Senate nominees, but put it this way: In some alternate universe where now Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio and Rich McCormick of Pennsylvania had swapped states McCormick – a generic hedge funder – probably would have beaten Brown by more than Moreno did. For his part, Moreno – a fucking scumbag car dealer credibly alleged to be a closet bisexual – would have lost against Dem now-former Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. Still, Trump outperformed both significantly and the top of the ticket is going to matter more than the Senate candidates themselves. Even with all that unknown, Pennsylvania’s still probably lean D.

Arizona, Mark Kelly and Georgia, Rev Raphael Warnock: Not even sure it was necessary to add them. Those two are just damn good politicians and it would take a VERY strong GOP presidential nominee to carry some at least semi-normal-ish Republican nominee over line. Whether the two states’ GOP are capable of nominating one should be in serious doubt until proven otherwise.

Then there’s the offensive opportunities, starting with the most obvious:

RonAnon, Wisconsin: This son of a bitch REALLY should’ve lost in 2022, but then-Lt Gov Mandela Barnes was no pre-stroke then-Lt Gov John Fetterman. He sucked and Ron Johnson squeaked by while Dem Gov Tony Evers was reelected. Notably on Wednesday when asked by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Molly Beck if he’s thought about his plans for 2028, Johnson said “not really, there’s no reason for me to make any kind of quick decision on this at all.” Keep in mind this miserable 9/11 truther fuck was supposed to hang it up after two terms, only to renege on it and here we are, still stuck with him. Given 2022, it’s hard to completely count him out. Given 2026, yeah, you could bet a significant piece of the farm against RonAnon remaining a Senator into 2029.

Ted Budd, North Carolina: Ever heard of Ted Budd? No? Well get this, he’s actually a US Senator from North Carolina. You see Dem former Governor and now Senator-Elect Roy Cooper was going to run against the then-Congressman for the seat left open by Richard Burr in 2022, but Cooper didn’t want to leave his state in the hands of obese porn freak Lt Gov Mark Robinson, who would’ve been elevated to the top office had Cooper defeated Budd. So now the zero-profile generic Republican hick Budd is ripe for the nipping. By whom is the question and since human cloning technology hasn’t advanced to the point where Cooper could be replicated and run against Budd, that leaves Tar Heel Ds in search of a candidate. Maybe it’s current Governor Josh Stein, whose record of winning statewide races is as unbroken if not as lengthy as Cooper’s, though that gets tricky given that 2028 is also when Stein would also run for a second term in the governor’s mansion. Again, it’s the presidential ticket that factors in the most here, but North Carolina’s recent electoral history is more interesting than most: Unlike most other states, North Carolina’s top offices coincide with presidential years and all three times Trump was on the ballot he won. So did Cooper in 2016 and 2020, and Stein as Attorney General both of those years and then as governor in 2024.

Tim Scott, South Carolina: It’s fair to question whether Dem now Senator-Elect Annie Andrews would’ve beaten Tim Scott – or Lindsey Graham if he hadn’t died and his political slug of a sister hadn’t ran in his stead. It’s equally fair to question that, if Tim Scott is the chair of the NRSC, then how the fuck was he unable to help Darline Graham pull it off. So even with all those variables detailed voluminously above and those unique to the Palmetto State’s situation next cycle, Scott takes third on this list of gettable flips, simply because it’s hard to see how Dem voters would not be excited after what just happened. Once there’s blood in the water it’s hard to get it out.

Old Man Grassley, Iowa: Dem Josh Turek is the Senator-Elect and damn that feels good to write. More importantly to this spot in the list however is that Dem Rob Sand is the Governor-Elect and 93 year-old Republican senior Senator Charles “Pidgin Lover” Grassley is not feeling good about that new reality in the vast cornfield state. He said it himself in September. “At 93 years of age, I don’t know how many more groups of Republicans like this I’m going to have a chance to talk to, but once of the reasons I’m worried about who’s going to be elected governor – I don’t plan on dying in office, but if I did, I don’t want a Democratic governor choosing my successor,” Grassley told the crowd at an Iowa GOP event in West Des Moines. So Ol Chuck’s got two months left to die – or resign – so outgoing Gov Kim Reynolds can appoint a Republican she thinks will be well-positioned to hold the seat in 2028… And maybe should’ve ranked this seat above Tim Scott’s. It’s not like Iowans are going to be meaningfully less pissed-off at the Trump Regime in 2028, nor do the actuarial realities favor Grassley. Again, a lot of moving parts and uncertainty that leave the range of outcomes pretty wide.

Jerry Moran, Kansas: Moran’s 74, has a pretty low profile, crushed the Dem 60 to 37 percent in 2022. His partner Senator Roger Marshall also just gave up his seat to the first Dem Kansas will send to the chamber since the Hoover Administration. Nobody saw that coming until approximately a month and a half ago. Moran has two years to figure out how to stop it from happening again, whether it be him or a replacement candidate. Problem is there may just be plenty of Adam Hamiltons and James Talaricos out there who can recreate the winning formula for credible Christian Dems in their states. Hamilton’s also a former Republican, which certainly helped his relatability.

Katie Britt, Alabama: Now this is where the uncertainty kind of starts to bend toward “2028 would have to be an even bigger Blue Wave than 2026” for Katie Britt to lose. She’s sharp, she’s attractive, she’s oddly kind of charming for her moments of unintentional comedy from over the years. But there’s a talented Black man representing the state to the east, and another talented Black man about to represent the state to the west. Oh and a talented Black woman about to govern the state to the east. Alabama’s Black voters might see that and be thinking “Wait, why do they get Black leadership while we’re stuck with fucking Tommy Tuberville, Barry Moore, and that Karen?”

John Kennedy, Louisiana: Another state that might’ve been on the map this year had Dems properly calibrated. Kennedy’s old, looks even more like a jowly grandma, but probably has another run in him. If not, then there might be a serious pickup opportunity, all depending on candidate quality.

TBD, Tennessee: Unfortunately it won’t be Pete Hegseth. Unless Governor-Elect Marsha Blackburn is full of shit, she will not be appointing to replace her. She will also not resign from her seat and leave it open for outgoing Gov Billy Lee to make the pick. Dullard MAGA Congressman Tim Burchett has been openly campaigning for Blackburn to pick him and Blackburn is just as stupid as him, so maybe he’s the favorite for the appointment – and thus a viable target for Dems in 2028.

Mike Lee, Utah: If “candidate quality” was solely what did Roger Marshall in then the utterly unhinged Utah Senior Senator has the same problem in spades. Again, the right Dem – preferably a Mormon – running the right campaign under the right conditions could be a real threat to Lee. It doesn’t have to be friggin Evan McMullin again. This is doable as a piece of the puzzle’s already there in the form of the insulated and unhinged descendant of a murderous Mormon warlord.

Now you might take issue with the order or the inclusions/omissions of the red states on the map above. Maybe Indiana or even Oklahoma should’ve gotten a look. But this is already 2,200+ words long and it must be noted how fucking incredible and unanticipated this situation is: Under every realistic scenario Republicans are locked out of the Senate majority until 2033 and that’s as it stands NOW, before Dems use their offensive advantage in 2028. No joke that for the GOP to make gains in 2028 is probably less realistic that Dems will hold 60 senate seats, the House (that story’s for another day), and the presidency come 2029 and at that point the whole filibuster debate is mooted (don’t expect to hold with 59 D seats), womp fuckin womp, MAGAmerica.

Either way, for want of a war, the power is now lost for a long-ass time.

And the screaming is only beginning, as convicted felon President Trump just posted this:

President “Lock Her Up” can dish it out but can’t take it.