A new WMUR/St Anselm College survey of likely presidential voters in New Hampshire finds disgraced former President Trump leading former South Carolina Governor Nimrata “Nikki” Haley 44 percent to 30 percent, a gain of 15 points for Haley since St Anselm’s September poll and very close to the Sunday CBS News poll finding of Trump 44 – Haley 29. It’s still a long shot and Haley definitely needs Chris Christie (12 percent) to drop out and endorse her ASAP. Then she’s going to need at least half of Gov Pudding Fingers’ (6 percent) support to go to her after he gets crushed in Iowa, as expected. And then take as much of the tiny 3 percent remaining undecided as she can.
That’s the good news for Trump. The bad news is Joe Biden’s 49 to 39 percent general election lead in the Granite State, consistent with Emerson’s Biden +5 in November (after you add a few points because Emerson are fucking MAGA sandbaggers pretending to be mainstream) and CNN’s Biden +12 finding in September, consistent with his +7 win in 2020. Again,it’s not that New Hampshire is seriously in play in 2024 (even though Trump only lost it by under 3,000 votes in 2016), it’s that voters there see Trump every day on TV and they’re already fucking sick of him.