New York Times polling egghead Nate Cohn on Monday took a look at fat former President Trump’s support few primary contests so far versus his polling and is starting to perceive that something may be off, writing that “with Mr Trump faring well in early general election polls against President Biden, even a modest Trump underperformance in the polls is worth some attention.”
After a whole bunch of nerd talk, Cohn gets to the good part of the nerd talk with “Once other explanations are ruled out, then we’re left with the possibility that there’s an unobserved bias in the data. That’s mostly because nonresponse theories usually don’t have any clear evidence on their behalf, which is the case here as well… There is one reason the anti-Trump turnout might have relevance for general election polling: It’s consistent with other data showing Mr Biden with the edge among the most highly engaged voters. This could yield a slight turnout advantage, even in a general election. It may also mean that the current polls of all registered voters slightly underestimate Mr Biden compared with the narrower group of actual voters. This wouldn’t mean the polls today are vastly underestimating Mr Biden, but it could make the difference in a close election.”
OMG WELCOME TO THE #RESISTANCE NATE COHN! HE’S FINALLY MAYBE NOT A TOTAL FUCKING DICK ANYMORE! WE MIGHT EVEN TAKE BACK SOME OF THE SHADE WE THREW AT HIM!