Two big things are going to happen tomorrow, and neither of them will be good news for Trump or republicans.
First, at 8:30 a.m. the monthly jobs report for July will be released. While ADP released a report earlier this week showing 167,000 private sector jobs created last month, market expectations are that the official BLS report will be in the neighborhood of 1.6 million jobs created.
In Normal Times, a month jobs report with 1.6 million new jobs would be exceptional, but we do not live in normal times. We’ve lost a net 13 million jobs and 30 million Americans are on unemployment thanks to the haphazard, careless handling of the coronavirus.
Also, 1.5 million jobs would be a steep dropoff from the 4.8 million jobs created in June, meaning that the economic recovery Trump hopes for–to save his flagging reelection campaign–isn’t happening.
The second thing, however, might be the far more devastating thing to Trump and republicans.
Friday is the self-imposed deadline the White House and Democratic leaders set to come to an agreement on a new coronavirus relief package. By all accounts, the two sides are far apart in their negotiations, with the Democrats holding all the cards in the negotiations.
If–by miracle of miracles–the sides come to some sort of agreement, the republicans will not win regardless of the outcome. They’ll either cave to the major Democratic demands–which include a $3.5 trillion package that will extend federal unemployment payments, financial assistance to state and local governments, and a moratorium on evictions–or they’ll push through their temporary one trillion package–which does little for workers but pushes through a payroll tax holiday and liability protections for employers.
Negotiations are going so badly for Trump that the guy who calls himself the best negotiator in the world–“Nobody knows the system better than I do.”–and who supposedly wrote a book titled The Art of the Deal had to call in Mitch McConnell to get advice on negotiating.
Should the two sides not agree on a deal, financial relief for American families likely won’t be available until September at the earliest… and the fault will fall squarely on the shoulders of republicans.
But if republicans get a “win” in negotiations–an unlikely event given House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are standing together strong and fast–the parties will likely have to immediately restart negotiations on the next round of relief because the republican plan does not address the current environment–from either an economic or a public health perspective.
Regardless of the jobs report or the outcome of negotiations, Donald Trump won’t care–not that he ever actually cares about the outcome of his actions. The reason: he’ll simply blame others for his failures. It’ll be “Chuck and Nancy’s” fault. Or McConnell’s. Or The Governors.
It’s a refrain we’ve heard about virtually everything Trump touches.
Trump’s problem, though, is that the American people are already wise to his excuses, and we don’t like impotent leadership. As 30 million Americans face another month of hardship and as the nation climbs to 200,000 fatalities due to the coronavirus, we see the ineptitude of Trump and republicans.
Trump’s “I take no responsibility at all” will be written on his political gravestone.