Jonathan Chait: “The claim — to call it an ‘argument’ would give it too much credit — is that a series of demonstrations of support for Trump by boat owners provides crucial information about the state of the presidential race. It’s unclear whether the boat parades are supposed to be a better indication of public sentiment than polls, or whether the parades are simply thought to augment the polls by providing additional evidence of enthusiasm that surveys may overlook. Either way, President Trump and his media supporters have enthusiastically touted the boaters.”

“‘The polling is fake …’ Trump insisted yesterday. ‘We have a silent majority the likes of which nobody has seen. I just look – there are thousands of boats in lakes, rivers, & oceans, thousands and thousands of boats … it’s called Boaters for Trump.’ Speaking to Fox & Friends today, the president again brought up the vessels as a superior measure of his support than polls. ‘I see much more spirit … The boats, just thousands of boats, and that’s all over the country.’ Trump is not necessarily doomed. The polls may be off by a few points, and Trump could easily win the Electoral College even if he loses the national vote. Most importantly, there are almost three months until the election, which is plenty of time for things to change. The polling website FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 28 percent chance of winning the election, making his cause far from hopeless. If Trump wants to find some grounds for hope in the face of poor polling, reasonable arguments are available. The partisan skew of recent boat parades, however, is not one of them. For one thing, boat owners are a small and extremely unrepresentative sample of the public.”