The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model run by the University of Washington in Seattle–at one time, the model referred to regularly by the White House–is now forecasting the US will incur 410,000 deaths due to coronavirus by January 1st.
The model is premised on no changes to current domestic policy in handling the pandemic. Should a national mandatory masking policy be implemented now, for example, the fatality projection would drop to 288,000.
The model predicts a rising daily death toll until December, a result of reopening of businesses and schools, as well as the onset of the flu season.