“So, recently Trump has been getting some fairly awful results in swing state polls while national polls have tightened a bit. It is fairly likely that is noise, i.e. that Trump is getting a little unlucky in state polls but lucky in national polls and things will even out. But one alternative explanation is if Trump is making gains in red states, perhaps consolidating his base especially in states with no Biden ads running, which we wouldn’t know very much about because most pollsters aren’t polling, say, Idaho very much” – Nate Silver via Twitter.