Monmouth University: “Among all registered voters in Arizona, the race for president stands at 48% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The contest stood at a similar 46% to 43% in a poll taken shortly before the state’s presidential primary in March. Another 4% currently support Jo Jorgensen and 3% are undecided. Voter intent includes 42% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 45% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 48% who are not at all likely). Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race narrows to 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump. The race tightens even more to 47% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. Arizona has given its electoral votes to the Democrat only once in the past 70 years (1996). Trump won the state by just under 4 points in 2016.”