“The Democratic firm that predicted an election-night ‘red mirage’ for President Trump — an early lead it says that Joe Biden will overtake when mail-in ballots are counted — is standing by its prediction, but with a smaller mirage than expected. Updated modeling from analytics firm Hawkfish, reviewed by Axios, says Trump may look as if he’s on track to cross 270 electoral votes and approach a 286-252 victory. But in the end, it predicts, Biden could win by as much as 334-204, or a more modest 279-259, once all mail-in ballots are counted.”
“Remember, a model is just a model — and if it’s off, the results could be markedly different. The ‘red mirage’ offers a data-based argument for why Americans should not expect to know a winner tonight. They also shouldn’t believe President Trump if he prematurely declares victory, as he’s foreshadowed, or argues that counting legally received ballots is somehow an effort to ‘steal’ the election if backlogs delay the counting. Many states expect delays in counting. Under one updated Hawkfish model, Biden would eventually overtake Trump in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but not Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas” – Axios.