The FiveThirtyEight midterms forecast puts Republicans at an 87 of 100 chance to control the House and a 53 of 100 chance to control the Senate in 2023. Nate Silver cautions however he hasn’t really incorporated much post-Roe v Wade polling into his prediction model and says it’s not a huge national popular vote gap to close for the Dems in the House.
“The task isn’t that daunting for Democrats. Our model calculates that Democrats would be favored to keep the House if they win the House popular vote — or lose it by less than 0.7 percentage points — something that Democrats did in both 2018 and 2020. Moreover, Democrats are down by only about 2 points in our current average of generic-ballot polls. Given the inherent error in polling, and how much time there is between now and November, it isn’t hard to turn a 2-point deficit in the polls into a 1-point win… If polls come out showing Democrats holding their own among likely voters – such as because of increased Democratic enthusiasm in the wake of Roe being overturned – the model will adjust to reflect that. Put another way, a very strong turnout would give Democrats a fighting chance of keeping the House,” the master election nerd writes.