With close to 90% of the vote in for both Parties, Pennsylvania’s primaries ended the way people expected: incumbent Joe Biden will take about 93% of the Democratic vote, and Donald Trump will win the GOP side, according to the tally from the New York Times. Trump’s share of the Republican vote is just 84%, with one in six GOP voters–in a closed primary–casting ballots for long-gone candidate Nikki Haley.
The numbers are consistent with what’s happened in other primaries on both sides: Biden dominates and Trump struggles through in the mid-80s. And that should trouble the Trump camp. Nikki Haley has officially out of the race for nearly fifty sleeps–more if you’re Mr. Trump–and the resistance to him within the Party is steady in primaries.
Let’s start in reality: Donald Trump lost the 2020 election in Pennsylvania. Trump lost; that’s the truth. While he had heavy turnout of faithful Republicans, it was not enough to overcome the Democratic machine being built in the state that would turn the state house blue and supply a Democratic gubernatorial win in 2022.
In the primaries, Trump is finding it impossible to shake the zombie candidacy of Nikki Haley. If Trump stands a chance in a place like Pennsylvania, he has to win them back–ALL of them back. He has no margin for error. Remember: Trump lost in 2020 in Pennsylvania.
In a state like Pennsylvania, Biden’s going to have his own challenges. Elections in the Keystone State can swing on college student turnout, and the Israel-Gaza war is not winning over anyone for the Administration on college campuses. While abortion isn’t a ballot issue in Pennsylvania, though, the top five Democratic primary candidates for state Attorney General vowed to stop lawsuits banning abortion and birth control; none of the Republicans would say the same. So while abortions not literally on the ballot, abortion is in play. (A rabid anti-abortion candidate lost to an incumbent Republican in a Congressional race, gaining one-third of voters in the district.)
Trump has to perform better in 2024 than he did in 2020. Even if he attracts 90% of the Haley voters, he’s still losing a slice large enough to lose the state. Plus, he’s got to overcome overlapping waves of pro-choice voters, growing anti-Trump sentiment, and a low-key Senate race with a lackluster carpetbagging Republican who lost the last primary to another carpetbagger.
The numbers in Pennsylvania don’t look good for Trump. Republican participation was tepid: Fewer than one million voted in the GOP primary, less than 2020 when voters were in a similar situation. There’s nothing on the horizon for him to attract large blocs of voters; grievance only gets you so far. He’s shedding enthusiasm, and he’s got a solid resistance within the Party as an incumbent and presumptive candidate. Trump should be solidifying support; he’s not. He can’t.