A new Emerson College national survey finds Vice president Kamala Harris leading convicted felon former President Trump 50 to 48 percent nationally. A majority of respondents, 58 percent, said there should be another debate between the two vs 35 percent no, with the lowest support naturally coming from Republican as it’s 49 percent yes debate to 41 percent no among GOP respondents.
Going into the red zone here it may or may not be useful to look at Emerson’s most recent track record in a national election rather than the long list of their state and local races in which they overrated the Republican candidate relative to the Democrat: In the October 2022 generic congressional ballot question Emerson said they found Republicans leading Democrats 46 to 41 percent nationally, the final result was 50 R – 47.3 D, a 2.7 percent miss. The point being that even if we have a pretty lengthy record demonstrating Emerson’s roughly 4 to 6 percent pro-GOP bias in local elections, their most recent national call was closer to the mark.