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The meltdown over the Selzer poll is better than the poll itself

Fox News is treating this Sunday like a weekday so the couch’s “A-team” are in – as are “The Five,” Frau Ingraham, Jesse Watters, Hannity, etc – and they are NOT pleased with the seismic Saturday night drop of the Ann Selzer Iowa survey, with the blonde one pointing out that Selzer’s final pre-2024 GOP caucus poll found Nikki Haley ahead of Ron DeSantis, which is… Well the top four of the last Selzer GOP poll was Trump 48, Haley 20, DeSantis 16, Ramaswamy 8 percent. The actual top four result was Trump 51, DeSantis 21, Haley 19, Ramaswamy 8 percent. So not that bad of a “miss.”

Nobody in the anti-Trump coalition with a lick of sense believes Vice President Harris has any realistic shot of winning Iowa. This finding is almost certainly an outlier. The problem for MAGA world is that we were happy with Selzer’s Trump 47 – Harris 43 finding in September. Hell if it lined up with Trump’s 53-45 win over Biden in the state in 2020 we would quietly do a little fist pump.

It’s not the numbers, it’s the cope – the exquisite, artisanal, handcrafted – such as the Trump campaign telling that reporter they’re “questioning the timing of this release right before all the Sunday shows that everybody has to talk about it today.” That one belongs on a plaque.

And they probably stole from this Rasmussen douchebag:

Then there’s Rapunzel man being “sarcastic”:

Charlie Kirk lost it:

“This a media-designed tactic to suppress turnout. Look at the candidates actions not just fake polls. This should piss you off and inspire you to bring 5 more friends to vote,” Kirk continued.

We’re not going to paste in what Pizzagate asshole wrote under the cutoff here. He almost certainly pasted it in himself and it’s all bullshit anyway. There’s no doubt what he was talking about though:

“No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA,” posted convicted felon former President Trump just this morning, lol. Sounds like maybe his handlers had to get him to avoid naming names with Selzer and to focus on the Emerson one finding him up 53 to 43 percent.

In fact that was what his campaign did on Saturday night, putting out another one of their famous “unskewing” memos (which we haven’t seen them do since August) in which Team Orange’s polling eggheads wrote “Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology… To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8 recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their survey. In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls,” and blah blah blah.

One other tin-foil-y aspect to this: The Emerson poll was not in-house, nor was it their usual sponsor at The Hill. Most of their surveys are either one or the other. But over the last few weeks they’ve actually been commissioned by right wing aggregator/”news” site Real Clear Politics (though this Iowa one is “RealClearDefense”). It’s worth asking whether these dildos – famous for feeding complete horseshit “Red Wave” findings into the averages in with legitimate pollsters and then even rigging that too – knew that Selzer would be coming out with a final poll around this time and got Emerson to conduct one ready to drop when they got the heads up that Selzer was in the field.

Is that petty and stupid to suspect? Yes. Does that mean it’s wrong? No, lol.

Created by potrace 1.16, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2019

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