“This letter responds to your request for an analysis of the distributional effects of HR 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and updates the preliminary analysis the Congressional Budget Office provided in the letter dated May 20, 2025. CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) recently estimated the budgetary and distributional effects of HR 1 as passed on May 22, 2025.”

“On the basis of those estimates, CBO allocated the effects on revenues and spending to households. The agency also allocated to households the effects of states’ estimated responses to changes to health programs—primarily Medicaid—and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). CBO estimates that if the legislation was enacted, US households, on average, would see an increase in the resources available to them over the 2026- 2034 period. The changes would not be evenly distributed among households. The agency estimates that in general, resources would decrease for households toward the bottom of the income distribution, whereas resources would increase for households in the middle and top of the income distribution. This analysis includes most, but not all, provisions of HR 1. The distributional analysis of changes to taxes and tax-related outlays is based on analysis done by JCT. Therefore, the analysis in this letter excludes any tax provisions not allocated in JCT’s distributional analysis of HR 1,” says the Congressional Budget Office in a letter to House Minority Letter Hakeem Jeffries and Ranking Budget Dem Brendan Boyle.