“The 28 Congressional Districts surveyed include fifteen where the Republican won in 2024 by a margin of 5 percent or less and thirteen won by both the Democrat and President Trump. In aggregate, the Congressional vote was tied and President Trump won these districts by 4 points. It will be these districts that decide control of the House after the midterm election.”
“Currently, among all registered voters the generic Republican is trailing the generic Democrat by three points. Among the 65 percent of voters who rate themselves 10-out-of-10 motivated to vote, an early indication of who could turn out next year, the Republican trails by 7-points,” says a memo by Trump pollster Fabrizio-Ward mostly otherwise devoted to selling a health insurance tax credit.