According to Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman, the first and earliest bellwether for Democrats in the House (and the Senate, by extension) will come from Virginia’s 2nd District, repped by Congresswoman Elaine Luria of House January 6th Select Committee fame, who faces an apparently tough challenge from MAGA state Senator Jen Kiggans. FiveThirtyEight rates it as a dead heat, but this is based off of one poll taken last month by Christopher Newport University in Virginia showing them tied at 45%. The only other poll listed was from April showing Luria ahead by 5.
Wasserman says it’ll be a “better night for Dems than expected” if Luria hangs on, while cautioning that all Virginia races, especially in Dem Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger’s 7th District, will have an early red mirage. Other Eastern Time Zone races to keep an eye on include Rhode Island’s 2nd, New York’s 19th and 22nd, Maryland’s 6th, New Hampshire’s 1st, Michigan’s 3rd and 7th, and Ohio’s 9th. We skipped Pennsylvania districts because we’re not holding out much hope for results on election night, but the 7th, 8th, and 17th are considered competitive there.