Harry Enten, CNN: “President Joe Biden is not a popular politician at this point in his presidency. This is even true in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points last year, where his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) is under water. Yet in Virginia, and even nationally on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are holding onto slim within-the-margin-of-error advantages. Why? It could be in part because former President Donald Trump is unusually present for a politician not in office, and he’s as – if not more – unpopular than Biden. You can see the Trump dynamic playing out in real time on the campaign trail. Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe has repeatedly tried to tie Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin to the former President, both in his speeches and ads.”

“If the polls were exactly right, McAuliffe would greatly underperform Biden’s win last year and current Gov. Ralph Northam’s win in the 2017 governor’s race. They won by 10 points and 9 points, respectively. The drop in McAuliffe’s position relative to other Democrats shouldn’t be surprising given that Biden’s net approval in the state in recent polling has averaged about -2 points. Still, a lead is a lead, and McAuliffe is outrunning Biden’s net popularity rating by a little less than 5 points. The same polling reveals that Trump remains deeply unpopular in the state. A Fox News poll released last week had his net favorability rating at -9 points among likely voters and -18 points among registered voters. Trump’s more unpopular than McAuliffe or Youngkin, who both sported positive net favorability ratings in the Fox News poll among likely voters. This seems to matter.”