Democrats lead the GOP 44 to 39 on the generic ballot question on the Yahoo News/YouGov poll. It’s probably not “accurate” given it shows Dems with a bigger lead than others, most of which have put them more or less tied with the GOP, with a handful showing Republicans slightly ahead. But it’s the shift from 44-39 when asked “Who are you going to vote for?” to “Would you vote for a Pro-Choice Dem or a Pro-Life Republican?” at 44 to 31 percent that explains exactly why MAGA World wanted to focus on the leak and not the draft ruling overturning Roe v Wade itself this week.
That’s not a Blue Wave. That’s not a landslide. That’s a fucking massacre. No matter how badly YouGov may or may not have screwed up weighting the sample – like we said, it’s undeniably more favorable to the Dems than what we’ve seen elsewhere – we’re talking about a change within the same sample, and losing a fifth of support for their party on a single issue would be nothing short of apocalyptic for Republicans, no matter what the “actual” generic congressional ballot baseline should be. Keep an eye on other polls, this is the first survey since the leak, but if it sticks…