The Bitecofer model forecasting the November presidential election has updated to move Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic,” given presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden enough delegates to win the Electoral College.
The Electoral College total for states forecasted as “Safe Democratic” and “Likely Democratic” is now 278 votes, surpassing the 270 needed for election.
The model also shifted Florida from “Toss Up” to “Leans Democratic,” status shared by Arizona, which would give Biden a total of 318 Electoral College votes.
In this model, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, totalling 95 Electoral College votes, are “Toss Up” states.
Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer developed the model as a senior fellow at the Niskanen Center. Her model relies on standard polling, but also weighs likely changes in voter participation.