Two important economic reports will be released tomorrow and both will likely reflect an economy spiralling downward as the United States continues to feel the effects of renewed coronavirus outbreaks across the nation.

With the Federal Reserve holding its benchmark short-term interest rates near zero, the outlook for the US economy is grim.  The Fed stated the coronavirus will “will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment and inflation.”

On Thursday, the federal government will release two key reports:  its first “estimate” on second quarter GDP and its weekly report on first-time unemployment claims.  Neither are expected to be rosy. 

For the last 17 weeks, first-time unemployment claims have topped one million, and this week’s report is not expected to break that trend.  More than 50 million Americans have filed for unemployment during that time, accounting for nearly one-third of the US workforce.

Last week, weekly first-time unemployment claims, which had steadily fallen for nine weeks, rose for the first time since May.

Second quarter GDP numbers will reflect the impact closing businesses to curb the spread of coronavirus had on the economy.  Bloomberg calculates that the report will show the GDP report coming in at an annualized rate of -35%, meaning the quarterly report could be around -10% shrinkage for the quarter.

“Really, you’re going to see just godawful numbers just across the board,” says Scott Anderson, chief economist of Bank of the West, told USA Today.

While some economists expected the economic downturn to soften as states reopened in May and June, those hopes are tampered by the spikes of new cases in Sunbelt states, meaning those businesses that reopened had to shut down a second time.