Harry Enten: “I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can’t just count on late deciders to put him over the top. Trump, on the other hand, has never reached 50% in either his approval rating or against his Democratic opponents in any live interview poll during the last five years.”

“Now, there is obviously a chance Trump will eventually reach 50% against Biden. But if this streak continues for Trump, he will be the first president to never reach 50% in any live interview poll in either his first successful campaign for president, approval rating or his reelection bid. This presidential cycle alone, there have been over 90 live interview national polls since 2019. The highest Trump has gotten in any of these polls against Biden has been 48% of the vote. The average has been 42%. Compare that with Biden’s average of 50.3%. Biden’s hit 50% in a majority of the polls. Unlike Trump, who has slipped below 40% a number of times, Biden’s never dropped below 40%. Trump’s inability to hit 50% is nothing new. There have been north of 700 live interview polls that asked about Trump’s approval rating during his presidency. He reached 50% in none of these polls. The closest he’s gotten is 49%. The average has been 40% or 41%, depending on how you count tracking polls. He’s often been below 40%. Perhaps not surprisingly, Trump’s average approval rating during his presidency is very close to the average support he has earned against Biden in the live interview polls.”