With President Trump announcing that he and the First Lady have coronavirus, we have to ask how that is going to impact the presidential campaign.

Aside from all the potential health complications, we do not know how many of the Trump White House, campaign staff, or surrogates will also develop the infection.

That said, first, it means that Trump will not be able to rallies as he planned.  Given that the polls haven’t budged all that much after Trump’s disastrous debate performance on Tuesday, settling with Biden at around a 7-8 percentage point lead, there will be no major movement even without Trump rallies. 

The surrogates–primarily the Trump family members–should quarantine because of their close contact with Trump and Hicks in the past few days.  That means *they* can’t go out on the road.  Trump’s campaign essentially grinds to a halt, and they now have to come up with a plan that doesn’t include the vital-to-them key attraction.  (Editor’s note 1:52 a.m.:  Don Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle went into isolation after exposure after Trump’s July 4th event at Mount Rushmore.  It’s possible they could go out and do stump speeches, but would people go?)

Biden’s team, on the other hand, already knows how to run a remote campaign.  Advantage goes to Biden in the final four weeks.

(Update 1:50 a.m.:  Another issue with this becomes funding.  Biden’s campaign and Democrats in general are far better funded than republicans this cycle.   This gives them the ability to run many more ads, social media programs, and personal appearances.)

Next, what’s the status of Vice President Pence?  Was he exposed?  If so, he too must go into quarantine.  It also puts in the forefront of voters’ minds:  who do you want in the Second Chair, Pence or Harris?  It puts into stark relief the importance of a wise VP pick for the first time in a generation.

The next planned debate was the VP debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence, slated for October 8th, six days from today.  The event will be dependent on Pence’s testing results and health.  If Pence tests negative, but still must isolate, it’s possible it could be the first debate via Zoom.

Most likely, the next presidential debate, currently scheduled for October 15th.  This will likely–and should–be canceled.  That will still be within the 14-day quarantine period, so from a public health perspective, there’s no question no one should push to have it.

What will the long-term impact of the virus on Trump be?  “Long-haulers” have symptoms that last far beyond the two-week quarantine period.  (For example, I was diagnosed 90 days ago, and I still do not have my sense of smell or my sense of taste, plus I’ve got shortness of breath.)  How will this impact Trump?  Can he claim “COVID-related brain fogginess”?  Does that make Trump “damaged goods” to voters?

Finally, will this cause Trump to pull out of the election?  If Trump’s condition worsens and requires hospitalization, or if he has long-term impacts, will Trump drop out of the race for health concerns?  And where does that put the GOP?  Who steps up to fill a slot on the ticket?

(Update 1:55 a.m.:  Where does this put the timeline for the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court?  She met with Trump earlier this week.  Will she be put into a 10 day or 2-week quarantine?  If so, that pushes back the announced schedule for her hearings, and pushes it closer to the two weeks prior to the election, when 33 senators need to get back to their states to campaign.)