“Gov. Gavin Newsom is on track to survive a recall election in deep-blue California after initially causing Democrats severe heartburn, with veteran Republican insiders blaming GOP front-runner Larry Elder. The conservative talk-radio host motivated previously complacent rank-and-file Democrats – which neutralized Newsom’s biggest challenge of voter apathy – by catering to the Republican base with polarizing rhetoric and adamantly opposing mask and vaccine mandates amid a resurgence of the coronavirus. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1, Elder made himself the perfect foil for Newsom – enabling the Democratic incumbent to make the campaign about the GOP rather than his embattled leadership.”

“‘Newsom has successfully framed the race as him versus Elder, and Democratic voters are responding by voting,’ said Rob Stutzman, a GOP operative in Sacramento who advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican who succeeded Gray Davis after the Democrat was recalled from office in 2003. ‘Elder has no appeal outside of GOP voters.’ Elder, a 69-year-old whip-smart and engaging black Republican who is at times combative, is poised to finish first among candidates vying to replace Newsom in Tuesday’s recall. But it will be a Pyrrhic victory if fewer than 50% of California voters support removing the governor from office. A flurry of recent polling suggests that is exactly what will happen. ‘Before Elder, the race was all about Gavin, and our polls were looking very good,’ said a Republican consultant in California. ‘If the election had been four or more weeks ago, we would have won'” reports the Washington Examiner.