“Vice President Harris is holding a narrow lead over former President Trump ahead of the Democratic National Convention next week, according to a new poll. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found Harris has 49 percent of support among registered voters while Trump has 45 percent and 5 percent said they would back someone else. This shows Harris pulling ahead, as a previous ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted last month showed President Biden and Trump tied at 46 percent of support each. Harris also holds a thin lead over Trump when third-party candidates are added to the mix. The poll showed Harris with 47 percent of support, Trump with 44 percent of support and independent Robert F Kennedy Jr with 5 percent,” The Hill reports in the lede to their article “Harris holds thin lead over Trump as DNC approaches: poll,” posted Sunday.
“Former President Trump opened up a 3-point lead over President Biden nationally following last week’s debate after the candidates were previously tied, according to a new poll. The Quinnipiac University survey, published Wednesday, found that Trump garnered 49 percent support to Biden’s 45 percent. That’s a significant improvement for the former president over last month’s survey, which found Biden with a single point lead,” The Hill also reported in an article titled “Trump pulls ahead of Biden in head-to-head match-up: National survey,” posted on June 26, 2024.
Funny how the wording changed between those two articles. Like the lead suddenly became “thin” when the leading candidate had changed – and that margin’s one point fatter than it had been.
In July, Trump held a commanding one-point lead over Joe Biden. Now, Kamala Harris holds a narrow four-point lead over Trump.
— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) August 18, 2024
Even funnier: ABC News and the Washington Post both printed the findings among likely voters and registered voters. Anyone who pays attention to campaigns knows likely samples carry far more weight than registered and not only did The Hill lead with the registered voter numbers they didn’t even mention the likely voter sample, among which Harris is up 51 to 45 percent over Trump in the head-to-head and 49 to 45 percent when RFK Jr and the other third party shitheads are included.
Could this be a small brick from a glass house because our headline was 51 to 45 when it possibly should’ve said 49 to 45? Sure, though we’re starting to get increasingly bearish on the roadkill candidates’ reach given how badly Bobby Jr’s collapsed, starting even before Harris took the Dem wheel. If a respondent was seriously intent on voting for him or those other two fucking clowns Cornel West and Jill Stein then they would have just said “Someone else” in the head-to-head.
Four percent of them did. The other two percent suddenly changing their minds when those Kremlin assets are named is a little far-fetched, especially when there’s no guarantee any one of them will be on the ballot in any given state. What kind of twatwaffle says “Wait! Stop right there polling call center operator! Did you say CORNEL WEST is running for president?!? Oh fuck yeah, I’m totally voting for him instead of Kamala Harris. Yes, put me down for Cornel West! I love him!”
Yes, this sounds like the “unskewing” we’ve been mocking lately. The larger point is that all these polls are so fucking frustrating simply because the race is so goddamned close. Last week a survey of California voters found Dem Congressman Adam Schiff leading that Republican assclown Steve or Sam something 66 to 33 percent in the Senate race. Nobody’s going to notice or even care if it ends up being off by 5 or even 10 percent. Schiff will be the next Senator from California unless he dies or gets arrested or whatever. But 5 or 10 percent off in the national poll between Harris and Trump is the difference between Schiff serving until he eventually leaves the Senate under what will be likely normal circumstances… or getting arrested by the Trump Justice Department led by Attorney General Kash Patel on some made-up crime related to the Russia investigation.
The movement in Harris’s favor could either be icing on the cake of what might’ve been a Biden win anyway despite all the bad vibes or it won’t mean shit that he stepped aside because Trump ends up clearing the table in the electoral college. We have no idea, even if it feels like Harris is the favorite currently because the fat fuck is losing his mind over these polls and his fear of losing may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. No horserace finding is going to point to that being the outcome though.
Nor are any of the “objective” douchebags at the Hill trying to spin it in Trump’s favor going to point away from it, no matter how badly they’re suffering on the inside now. Fuck them.