“Vice President Kamala Harris has opened her largest lead, 19 points, against former President Donald Trump, and now leads 58-39 percent among likely voters, up from 55-42 percent in September. In a multi-candidate horserace, Harris leads Trump 54-37 percent, up from 52-40 percent last month, with four percent for the minor party candidates, according to a Siena College poll of New York State likely voters released today,” says Siena in a press release.
That Madison Square Garden rally this weekend tho… Anyway this is just slightly shy of Joe Biden’s 60 to 37 percent magin in the Empire State in 2020. It’s not that New York was ever going to flip but the movement is definitely good – less than six months ago Biden led Trump by just 46 to 37 percent in the May New York Siena poll – especially in a state that’s a House battleground. We’re of the frame of mind that Trump will (probably) improve on his popular vote share relative to 2020 but that it will come almost entirely from large, uncontested states like New York, California, and Texas.