Cook Political Report has changed its ratings for two states to more favorable to the Trump campaign, sliding Nevada from “Likely Democrat” to “Leans Democrat” and Florida from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

Cook analyst Amy Walter noted that the Trump campaign outspent Biden in Nevada in July, with Trump buying $2.4 million in airtime while Biden spent only $225,000.  Also, with the coronavirus hitting the state’s hospitality industry hard, the Democratic “ground game” in the state was also hobbled, leading to fewer vote registration drives and door-knocking efforts.

Walter also notes that Biden doesn’t excite the Latino voters in the state, which make up a substantial part of the electorate.  While the state still favors Biden, the Democratic efforts will have to increase to counter Trump’s expected increase in activity and spending in Nevada.

Florida, Walter notes, is always a tight race, with no one winning the state by more than five percentage points over the last 20 years.  Cook had put Florida as “Leans Democrat” in July as Trump struggled to address the coronavirus pandemic, but with the virus outlook improving in the state, anti-Trump voter enthusiasm has made the race tighter.

Walter comments that while Democrats have not given up on the state, few pundits thought Biden could win, let alone run away, with the Florida race.  As polls tighten and Trump spending increases, the outlook is murkier, prompting Cook to move the state back to “Toss Up” status.