A new New York Times/Siena College poll finds President Biden leading disgraced former President Trump 47 to 45 percent in Wisconsin in the 2024 election… Oh and Trump leads in every other swing state, 52 to 41 percent in Nevada, 49 to 43 percent in Georgia, 49 to 44 percent in Arizona, 48 to 43 percent in Michigan, and 48 to 44 percent in Pennsylvania. The poll also found Biden leading Trump with voters under 30 by 1 percent in the six swing states surveyed, which is soooo devastating.

The only explanation the Times can muster for the disparity is “in a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six,” which we’re not sure really cuts it.

Wisconsin, really? What the fuck? The actual tipping point state for 2020 is the only one Biden leads in and by a margin significantly wider than his win there that year? We would’ve ignored this poll out of discouragement if not for the Chesseheads being the outlier. It’s obviously not great news for Biden, but that finding is just friggin weird and calls the whole thing into question.

All that said, if you do want to credit this polling of registered voters – one that does not include Robert F Kennedy Jr as an option – a year out from the election, you should check out the crosstab on likelihood of voting vs choice: 58 percent of those who said they support Biden were “almost certain” to vote while 51 percent of Trump fans said the same, which works out to a bare 51 to 49 percent lead for Biden. On the opposite end of the spectrum, among those “Not at all likely” to vote, Trump leads by a staggering 72 to 28 percent. How’s that for MAGA “enthusiasm”?