With a clearer view of the outcome a few days later, cutting through the clutter and the vacate claims of victory–not to mention the thuds of Vivek and Asa–there is only one clear conclusion that can be made from the Iowa caucus: This outcome is a harbinger of doom for the GOP in general and for Trump in particular.
I’m not saying this as some blogger on a Soros-funded far-left underground-popular website. I mean, we’re not that far left, to be honest. I’m saying this because I’ve finally had a chance to dig into some of entry/exit polling numbers from places like the Washington Post, CNN and other sources. (The Post analysis is most complete, by far, so I gift-linked it.)
By definition, these caucus voters are the most die-hard Republicans in the state. Braving near-zero temperatures (or wind chill or whatever scale you want to use to say it was fucking cold) to vote in a caucus means you are concerned about your Party’s nominee, particularly if you’re not attending as an advocate for one particular candidate. These participants were dedicated because it took fortitude to go out. And we’ve all heard the numbers: the lowest turnout in nearly a quarter century; Trump only won 51% of the votes; only 15% of Republicans in the state voted. Yes, all true.
Donald Trump did win just 51% of the vote running as a defacto incumbent and titular head of the Party. In a state as conservative, as white, as Christian, as “traditional values” as any state in the nation, only half of the voters of the most die-hard voters supported him. That is not the sign of you getting a mandate; that’s the sign that they’re getting ready to dump you and haven’t chosen a successor. “Pie in the sky thinking,” you mutter at your computer. Nay nay, I say.
Where two-thirds of the Party members don’t think the last election was legit, Trump mustered a paltry 51% of the vote. Put those two numbers side-by-side in your head for a second: 66% said Trump won the last election, but about 1 in 5 of those people don’t think he should be the Party nominee in the upcoming election. They’ve moved on, for now at least. Will they come back to Trump? Well, yeah; we’ve already established that these are the die-hards, remember? But would an assumed similar gap remain in the general GOP electorate?
More over the target: 30% of people who participated in the Iowa caucuses said Trump would be unfit for office if he was convicted of a crime. Granted, we’re not at that point in time. Yet. But that date could be closer to Election Day than nomination day, and Election Day makes choices a whole lot clearer for “casual” Republican voters, those people who don’t soak in muck and mud like, say, we do. Again, making the big jump that parallels hold that 30% of Republican voters would abandon Trump if convicted, that is a huge dump of support after the Party could not–or more importantly, would not–make a change.
That, ladies and gents, is a legendary “enthusiasm gap” in utero. You remember the enthusiam gap, don’t you? It’s the difference in energy candidates elicit from supporters. Lazy Joe in the Basement is apparently suffering from it again, like he did in 2020, according to some pundits. (Side note: Lazy Joe won in 2020.) Some may measure it by yard signs. Others by crowd size. But the only time it counts is when the ballot is cast, and if nearly one-third of your base doesn’t think you’re fit for office–on one of the coldest nights of the year among your Party’s base in Iowa–you’re going to have an enthusiasm gap on Election Day regardless of if the verdict comes in or not.
The straw that will break the backs of many GOP voters is not going to be the verdict slip; it’s the transcript. In every Trump case, as prosecutors lay out cases and the news outlets cover the actual proceedings–not the nerdy prelim stuff like depositions–people will pay attention. As the election nears and people start tuning into the campaign, they’ll start tuning into the trials (hopefully literally). It won’t be docket numbers and motions; it’ll be testimony. There will be courtroom sketches, maybe cameras. There will be breathless reporters. And goddamn it, I hope there will be daily rantings by Trump outside the courtroom because I’m sure he stupidly believes the incorrect adage that there’s no such thing as bad publicity.
Yes, Trump made some gains in support, primarily among evangelicals. But… Trump is leading a cult and… well, history tells us that evangelicals are the target audience for many successful cult leaders in America. So Trump gaining their adherence wasn’t a surprise to me. I mean, it wasn’t like there was a charismatic minister like a Mike Huckabee in the race; HE would’ve changed everything. [Yawn.]
But the big sign is the readiness to dump him by a significant part of the base. Democrats are at an advantage here: Biden is steady if at times meandering. He’s not going to start an inferno; that’s not Joe. Joe’s Joe. Joe’s not Trump, with daily drama, questions and fatigue. Trump’s enthusiasm gap is visible, and it’ll be widening in time.