With the predicted-but-unscheduled rapid disassembly of Florida Governor and boot enthusiast Ron DeSantis’s campaign, the Republican race is… well, it was over before the DeSantis DeParture: Donald Trump is going to win the majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention. Trump will be the GOP nominee at the convention.
Nikki Haley will finish the campaign with the second-most delegates thanks to the timely departures of powerhouses like Asa Hutchinson and Tim Scott preceding DeSantis’s Sunday announcement. She’ll get a speaking slot at the convention. And she’ll be in line to step in when the US judicial system or the GOP Powers That Be decide that Trump can no longer lead the ticket.
That’s where the Biden campaign cannot lag. Had DeSantis been the First Runner-Up designated to step in should the first choice be unable to fulfill his duties, all Democrats needed to do was change the name of the villain: DeSantis built his campaign as a mini-Trump, so all Biden has to do is retool the “wannabe dictator” message to DeSantis’s words and acts. The “He’s a threat to democracy!” final message still works to drive voters. It’s not a course change; it’s a messaging correction.
That’s not the case with Haley, though. Haley is–at the moment, anyway–vehemently anti-Trump and pro(-ish)-Establishment. (Needed disclaimer: Given her history of shifting her opinions to fit her political needs, that may change at any point.) But right now, the Biden campaign must plan for two opponents who demand two different messages because they cannot be sure who the opponent will be in November.
Along with the expected accolades celebrating the multiple successes of his first term in office, Biden’s campaign message against Trump is already pretty clear: he’s unstable, he’s a threat to our nation, and he sucked the first time around. Donald Trump doesn’t respect our Constitution. (Adapted to DeSantis: “He’s unlikeable, he doesn’t respect our laws, and he did a shitty job in Florida.”)
The Biden camp needs to develop–and implement–a low-key anti-Haley campaign that parallels the louder anti-Trump campaign even as the GOP campaign goes through its Zombieland primaries. Keep the messaging that ALL Republican officeholders are bad for America; yes, focus on Trump to defeat him, but keep in voters’ minds that regardless of who the GOP nominee is, Republicans are bad for America. On the campaign trail, Biden cannot cite Haley’s anti-Trump rhetoric to try to attract moderate Republicans disenchanted with Trump; that gives her view legitimacy.
Another problem for Biden’s campaign: voter enthusiasm. Think of this scenario: It’s late July, and Trump is found guilty of something, and Republican leaders say he’s now unfit to be the Party’s nominee. Haley (or even DeSantis or whoever was in the VP slot) is now elevated to lead the ticket. Suddenly, all those voters energized to save the American Experiment from the clutches of Trumpism are relieved. “Phew!” they think. “American is saved! Trump is gone!”
How do you get them to vote when they think everything is okay? By including Nikki Haley in the messaging from the beginning: “Yeah, Donald Trump is the nominee for now, but all Republicans–even Nikki Haley–want to control women’s reproductive rights. Trump, Haley and Republicans celebrate Roe being overturned. Trump supports Haley’s national abortion ban, and Haley praised Trump’s Supreme Court picks.” DNC media releases need to highlight how much Haley supported Trump’s programs. Do not separate Haley from Trump. Make Nikki Haley the face of the anti-choice wing of the GOP. Make Haley the face of Republicans’ Confederate apologism.
In a lot of ways, prepping to run against Nikki Haley helps develop the national message against anti-Trump Republicans down ticket: “No, he isn’t MAGA. But he does want to make sure you can’t get reproductive care.” “You’re right: She didn’t support Trump. But she supports the government’s power to decide if your child can get medical care.”
Whatever it does, the Biden camp should not make an overt effort to attract Haley supporters–the most likely of the remaining GOP to jump ship in November–until it is too late to change the name on the ballot in key states which is late July or August in most states. No legitimizing her anti-Trump views; no using her video clips in soundbites. No referring to her statements to denigrate Trump. Stay away from Nikki Haley. She is your opponent, not your ally.
Let’s get one thing clear: If Donald Trump is removed from the ballot with the approval of Republican Party leaders–whether that would be an endorsement of courts and state executives ruling Trump’s ineligible for legal reasons or a decision that he can’t be the Party’s nominee after a felony conviction–what we know of the Republican Party will shatter. Diehard Trump supporters will refuse to recognize a different nominee; there will be state officials who will refuse to list Haley as the GOP nominee. And all that chaos will be of the Republican Party’s own making, and I will be here with the popcorn. But the very potential of that chaos means the Biden campaign has to be twice as ready.