A new YouGov/Economist survey’s question of “Do you think that Trump will be convicted of a crime in the hush-money case?” just 24 percent said yes, while 36 percent said no, with the partisan split of 35 percent yes to 26 no among Dems and 16 percent yes to 52 percent no among GOP voters.

YouGov also asked if Trump “should” be convicted, finding far more saying yes at 43 percent, but a nearly identical 37 percent also saying no, it’s partisan split 80 percent yes/6 percent no among Dems and a nearly exact inverse 7 percent yes to 77 percent no among Republican voters. Whether or not you think this poll is “reliable” the findings are, the deltas between the respective “should” and “will” are just kind of funny given the motivated reasoning applied to a probabilistic outcome on the latter. The 20 percent of Dem respondents saying he should be convicted but won’t are just tired of the fat fuck getting away with everything and don’t expect that to change. Keeping expectations low for political and/or legal justice is so cool in Blue America these days. Kind of like kombucha.

It’s the Republican respondents that stick out more. If they’re so confident that he won’t be convicted then why the hell are they freaking out so badly? Wouldn’t embarrassing Alvin Bragg be the greatest lib-owning since he was acquitted at the first impeachment trial back in February 2020? The wishful thinking expressed in this poll finding does not at all line up with the “vibe” that MAGA world is giving off these days. It’s almost like these respondents know it but didn’t want to say it.