The eggheads at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, aka the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, are out with their 2025-2026 gubernatorial ratings, forecasting a lean toward not-terribly surprising flips in Virginia and Kansas while pegging Michigan and Arizona as tossups, the last being the only one where an incumbent – Dem Katie Hobbs – isn’t term-limited. She may end up benefitting from a rough GOP primary in which the Orange Satan has endorsed both white nationalist Congressman Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost to Kari Lake in the 2022 primary.
Michigan’s also a tossup because outgoing Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan – elected to his current job as a Dem – has launched a bid as an independent, which is a great way to help get a Republican elected. Also on the “Lean-R” side are GOP-held Nevada and Georgia while New Jersey and Wisconsin – where Gov Tony Evers hasn’t announced a third run yet – are the blue leans.