The Texas Oil and Gas Association on Friday released a statement announcing that “data from the Texas Workforce Commission show upstream oil and natural gas employment fell by 1,400 in July compared to June. June’s job loss has been revised to 1,500 – less severe than the previously estimated 2,700. Despite declines over the past two months, year-to-date growth remains positive at 4,300 upstream jobs,” and quoting the trade group’s president Todd Staples spin of the weak 2025 employment growth with “Forecasts for lower prices can slow industry growth plans. With approximately 8 bcf/d of new LNG export capacity under development in Texas and multiple infrastructure projects announced, we are optimistic stable global market conditions will strengthen short-term demand and reinforce our energy workforce.” It’s not clear how much Staples resembles deceased actor Larry Hagman or whether the oil lobby executive wears a ten-gallon hat and drives around in a comically gaudy mid-1980s Cadillac with steer horns affixed to the front of the grille.
Less ambiguous is how it signifies yet another failure by convicted felon President Trump to make good on his campaign promises to supercharge what had already been since 2023 an effectively maximally-optimized fossil fuel industry in the United States. It’s as if he and his fans expected simply saying “DRILL, BABY, DRILL” would lead to both $1.84/gallon gas AND a vast wealth of opportunities for work on extraction projects without the messy reality of producers needing to maintain the current circa $60-$70/barrel price range to remain profitable enough to re-invest.
The bottom line is the national average price for regular gasoline will NEVER again be meaningfully cheaper than $3/gallon for any significant stretch of time in which there’s also sustained GDP growth. Significant job growth will require months of sustained $4/gallon+ prices. Nobody can have both, but most Americans would choose the former any and every day of the week.
The fat bastard is lucky fuel prices have stayed more or less static since January. The only question now is what he does to piss away the stability he inherited – and when, not if, he does it.