Harry Enten: “There’s little doubt that former Vice President Joe Biden has the upperhand against President Donald Trump at this point. Biden has led in poll after poll nationally and in almost every poll in the core six battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).”
“Yet, while Biden has maintained advantage, Trump has one thing going for him: His position is no longer deteriorating. A look at the polls shows that even as coronavirus cases and deaths rise, Trump remains within striking distancing of Biden. An Iowa poll out Wednesday from Monmouth University makes the point well. Trump comes in with 48% to Biden’s 45%, a 3-point margin and a result within the poll’s margin of error. Trump won Iowa by more than 9 points in 2016. That equates to a 6-point swing toward Biden from the 2016 result, which is good for the Democrat. However, that’s not better (and perhaps a touch worse) than you would have seen earlier this summer. A Des Moines Register poll from the state in early June gave Trump 44% to Biden’s 43%, another result within the margin of error. This poll, however, was a swing of 8 points from the 2016 result. When you look at the average state poll that called cellphones, you see no sign that Trump is doing worse than in the early summer.”