With presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden scheduled to announce his running mate this week, a number of sites are measuring the odds on who his vice presidential selection will be.
| Kamala Harris | -175 | 63.7% |
| Susan Rice | +333 | 23.1% |
| Karen Bass | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Tammy Duckworth | +1300 | 7.7% |
| Elizabeth Warren | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Val Demings | +2000 | 4.7% |
| Kamala Harris | +105 | 47.8% |
| Susan Rice | +300 | 25% |
| Val Demings | +800 | 11.1% |
| Tammy Duckworth | +800 | 11.1% |
| Elizabeth Warren | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Michelle Obama | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Kamala Harris | -200 | 66.7% |
| Susan Rice | +350 | 22.2% |
| Karen Bass | +350 | 22.2% |
| Tammy Duckworth | +650 | 13.3% |
| Elizabeth Warren | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Val Demings | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Michelle Obama | +2500 | 3.9% |
Oddschecker provides a listing of a number of different foreign oddsmakers.
My personal take is a bit different:
The popular choice, California Senator Kamala Harris, would make an excellent VP. She’s got the charisma to carry a campaign on her own, along with the demonstrated ability to call out the faults of the Trump era. She’s 20 years younger than Biden and energizes younger voters. She was also one of the first of the former candidates to endorse Biden, but a West Coast Elite joining the ticket of an East Coast Elite–as the republicans will frame the ticket–would alienate the Midwest in a race when every state is in play. At 55 years old, she could still be a viable presidential candidate in 8 or 12 years, providing a strong line of succession in the Democratic Party. Plus I like her better as Attorney General in a post-Trump era. My odds: 3-to-1.
California representative Karen Bass has been a recent darling of the media. She shares a backstory with Biden: they both had family members tragically taken from them: Bass’s daughter and son-in-law in a traffic accident; Biden’s wife and child also in a traffic accident as well as his son Beau dying of cancer. Bass has been a leader in child care reform and criminal justice reform. However, I don’t see Bass as an energizer, and she risks the “coastal elite” argument. My odds: 8-to-1, and that’s solely based on the burst of media coverage she’s gotten lately.
While I was a supporter of Elizabeth Warren‘s presidential run, I think three things go against her as a running mate on a Biden ticket. First, she’s from Massachusetts, whose republican governor could appoint a republican replacement for her at a critical time in the Senate. Second–and this is incredibly ageist–but she nearly the same age as Biden, so having two old white people on the ticket wouldn’t either excite the electorate nor provide a line of succession. And third, the “coastal elite” argument republicans would use effectively in the Midwest. Finally, she’s already a favorite target of Trump and the republican establishment media, which would not let up in an election. She’s more valuable in the Senate. My odds: 50-to-1.
Former Ambassador to the UN and National Security Advisor Susan Rice definitely has the bona fides to handle foreign relations that are typically part of the Vice President’s portfolio. But her flaw for the campaign is obvious: the Benghazi incident. It’s fodder for oppo ads. My odds: 25-to-1.
A former police chief of Orlando, Florida who was one of the House impeachment managers, Val Demings has a place on the national stage. She also worked as a social worker, which gives her a great perspective on ways to reform policing nationwide. But she’s only been in the House three years and she can take over a committee leadership position or an Administration position. And it would be two “East Coasters” on the ticket. I’d put her odds at 30-to-1.
There are many others: Michelle Obama (who’s riding the “We want to relive the Obama era” wave); Stacey Abrams (who gained a national voice by a strong run for Georgia’s Governor but doesn’t yet have any national office experience); and Keisha Lance Bottoms (a mayor hasn’t been on a presidential ticket in two generations). All are 100-to-1 or higher.
My frontrunner is Senator Tammy Duckworth. She’s a decorated disabled veteran. She’s in a safe Democratic seat. She’s from the Midwest, which takes a “coastal elite” argument republicans would make out of the picture. She’s got a great story as a mother and the first Senator to give birth while serving in office, connecting her to working moms across the country; contrast that to the Trump clan or the Pence family you never hear about. Plus she’s got Executive Branch experience as Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs. At 52, she’s younger than the other prospects, putting her in line for a presidential run. I put her at even money of getting the nomination.