David Graham: “The shape of the 2020 race suggests that 2016 might have been less a realignment than an anomaly: A uniquely unorthodox Republican candidate, an extremely vulnerable Democratic candidate, and just the right external conditions combined to give the presidency to Trump. This is not to say that the parties have not changed on policy, taking the GOP’s 180-degree-turn from free trade to protectionism as a prime example. Nor is it to say that there haven’t been meaningful shifts in the electorate. Trump continues to outperform previous Republicans with white, non-college-educated voters. But that doesn’t mean the electoral map has permanently transformed—a reality most clearly demonstrated in the upper Midwest.”

“Instead of trying to expand his base, Trump has spent the past four years mostly appealing to his strongest core supporters. This was always risky, as it required him to thread the same fine needle he had in 2016. The past year has made it all the more difficult. The coronavirus pandemic has harmed the president, but perhaps the biggest damage has come from his handling of protests about police violence. When Trump struck a hard line over the summer, and used heavily armed police to clear a square near the White House, his poll numbers tanked, especially among white voters. His standing has never recovered. Trump continues to pound the issue, reckoning that white voters in states such as Wisconsin and Minnesota, which have seen major protests and some rioting, will turn to him. They continue to refuse.”