As important as the presidential race is, control of the Senate will be the key to enacting the Democratic changes needed to undo the damage of the Trump legacy.  Without a majority in the Senate, republicans will be able to block every measure presented to the Senate, from judicial nominees to naming post offices.

In yesterday’s JackCast, I gave Biden a clear path to victory, both in the Electoral College and the popular vote.  Turning control of the Senate over to Democrats can be seen as a mandate to Democrats to enact their policies, and it will be a thorough rejection of not just Trumpism but McConnellism as well.

There are a number of safe seats on both sides of the aisle, which I won’t bother to list, but there are 14 seats that are at risk for flipping, which we’ll look at here.

First, the bad news for Democrats:  they’re not going to retain Doug Collins’ seat in Alabama.  That means they’ll have to flip four seats in the Senate to have a 50-50 split–with the deciding vote going to future Vice President Kamala Harris.

I don’t see an upset in Michigan, so Democrat Gary Peters will retain his seat.  And there are three seats within easy reach:  Maine (currently held by Susan Collins), Arizona (Martha McSally) and Colorado (Corey Gardener).  Sarah Gideon, Mark Kelly and John Hickenlooper have strong, steady leads in each of their respective states.  

That leaves one seat needed to get to the 50-50 split, and nine republican-held seats that are in play.  The one that everyone speculates will go to Democrats is a race thrown in turmoil in the last week:  North Carolina’s battle between incumbent Thom (the “h” is silent) Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.  Even with his recently disclosed randiness, Cunningham’s going to claw to a win.  

That’s not the end for Democrats, though.  Joni Ernst is going down.  Breadbags really screwed up in the Iowa debate, not knowing the market price of soybeans, and as I’ve mentioned in comments, I think Iowa’s swing voters will choose Trump or Ernst, but not both.  I think they’ll choose Trump and abandon Ernst, who’s been an embarrassment for most Iowans. Ernst’s approval rating dropped below 50% earlier this year after the impeachment trial, and her opponent Theresa Greenfield has gathered momentum at the right time.

A sure bet:  Steve will win in Montana.  (Yes, I know:  cheap joke given that both candidates are named Steve.)  I see an upset in Montana, with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock topping incumbent republican Steve Daines.  Bullock is a popular governor and a well-liked politician.  Daines, on the other hand, is tied to Trump, whose popularity in a deep Red state is fading.  Biden will not win the state, but Bullock will win a close race.

The races in Alaska, Kansas and Texas will all be races within a single digit–something that you can thank Trump’s historic unpopularity among traditional conservatives for.  But I don’t see republicans losing those seats.

Okay, now on to South Carolina, the race between Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison–perhaps the most anticipated Senate race of the cycle.  Unfortunately, I don’t see Harrison pulling this race out.  It’s really difficult to unseat a long-time Senator, and Harrison faced a major uphill challenge in a strong-red state with a strong Trump-drunk base.  I’m not saying this is out of reach for Harrison, and to me, this is the one that I’m most likely to be happily wrong about, but I’m simply not seeing strong momentum from Harrison to overcome Graham’s institutional lead.  

The final state to consider is Georgia, with its two simultaneous races.  The “jungle runoff” in Georgia will have Rev. Raphael Warnock leading in the vote but not reaching the 50% mark, forcing a runoff in January.  The question is, with whom?  It comes down between republicans Kelly Loeffler, an appointee to the seat, and Doug Jones, a former Congressman.  Loeffler’s embraced the far-right/QAnon wing of the Party; Jones is just a Trumpian.  Tomato/Tomahto.  In this case, I think Loeffler loses, largely because of the women’s vote going to Warnock or Jones.  In the runoff in January, regardless of the opponent, I see Warnock winning.  

In the other race, Democrat Jon Ossoff is taking on incumbent David Perdue.  Up until ten days ago, I would have put this as a republican “hold” but Perdue had some major screw-ups since, particularly in his flaccid debate performance and his refusal to participate in the second debate, instead going to a Trump rally.  Ossoff will top Perdue in the race, but will he reach the magical 50% goal to avoid a runoff?  I think he does, particularly if Biden has a strong outing in the state (even if he doesn’t win).  I see a lot of Georgians going for a Trump/Ossoff ballot–enough to give Ossoff the seat.  And that makes me pause because I just predicted two Democratic Senators for Georgia, which hasn’t happened since 2004.  

So, in my forecast, Dems lose Alabama, but pick up Maine, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana and ultimately, two seats in Georgia–a 53-47 majority (with two independents caucusing with Democrats) in the Senate for at least two years.