“A year ago the pandemic drained the subway of nearly all its riders, sickened thousands of New York City transit workers and plunged North America’s largest public transit agency into its worst financial emergency ever. Today ridership on the subway has crept back up to about a third of its usual levels, from an all-time low of 7 percent last spring. An infusion of billions of dollars in federal aid has kept the Metropolitan Transportation Authority afloat. And the agency, which operates the subway, buses and two commuter rail lines, was further lifted by another $6 billion in President Biden’s sweeping rescue plan. But the M.T.A.’s long-term survival depends on the return of riders and their fares, which make up the agency’s largest funding source. Nearly 40 percent of the agency’s operating revenue comes from fares, a higher percentage than almost any other major American transit system. Now as the city’s mass vaccination campaign reaches more people and urban life slowly rebounds, public transit officials are confronting a sobering reality: a growing consensus that ridership may never return entirely to its prepandemic levels and that the agency will have to reshape and reduce service to reflect new commuting patterns.”

“Adjusting to a new normal could mean longer waits between trains during what was once considered rush hour and less service on suburban-bound trains, where ridership remains anemic. With many office workers still working from home, the M.T.A. has already scaled back service on both its commuter rails, Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road, where ridership has plateaued at about a quarter of prepandemic levels. Even as the pandemic subsides, some companies are shifting workplace rules to make at least some remote work a permanent option. The uncertainty makes projections challenging, but an analysis by McKinsey & Company commissioned by the M.T.A. found that ridership might eventually reach 80 to 92 percent of prepandemic levels – and not until the end of 2024” – New York Times.