Democrats lead Republicans 45% to 41% on the generic ballot question on the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll, and 43 to 40 percent on the July 16 – 19, 2022 Economist/YouGov poll. Again, all the caveats, all the shit about how FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics’ averages still put Team MAGA ahead, all the circlejerk “The coming Biden Midterms disaster for Dems” headlines on The Hill, all the noises from the hole in between Chuck Todd’s rodent-like goatee, there’s no denying that Democrats are still very much in this and can hold the House and Senate.
Want more hopium? Great! We overlooked this but in the Tuesday CNN/SRSS poll (the one that found Dems and the GOP tied at 46%) Republicans dropped 15 percent in the 65+ vote since their previous survey in May, going from GOP 65 – Dem 37 to Dem 49 – GOP 47. If that’s real – and no reason to believe it isn’t at least partially – that’s a sign of a serious fucking problem for the GOP. The highest turnout, most reliable midterm vote demographic for Republicans is statistically tied with Dems. Why, we don’t know, but if this isn’t some kind of polling error then it’s possibly or even likely over Republicans fighting Biden’s attempts to lower prescription drug costs.