“Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt… The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall… The new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more eastward as it becomes extratropical,” says the latest advisory update from the National Hurricane Center.

“For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h,” the advisory continued.