Harry Enten: “2020 could be shaping up to be a winner-take-all situation. Given the lineup of seats up in the Senate, chances are Democrats will take the Senate if former vice president Joe Biden takes the presidency. If President Donald Trump wins a second term, chances are Republicans will retain control of the Senate. Right now, the Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate because of Biden. We could be looking at record straight ticket voting this cycle, and Biden’s advantage in the presidential race is seeping down into the Senate races. The Democrats need a net gain of three to four seats to win the Senate: three if Biden wins and Kamala Harris, as vice president, breaks a 50-50 split, and four if Biden loses and Vice President Mike Pence breaks a tie.”
“This could be the second presidential election in a row and only the second since senators were first popularly elected where every state votes for the candidate of the same party in both the presidential and Senate race. The 2020 election could even top the 2016 election in terms of the high correlation between presidential and Senate voting patterns in a state.”