“With the exit of RFK Jr from the race and his endorsement of President Trump, there will undoubtedly be a great deal of speculation of what it means and who it will help. I’ve seen the Harris folks already trying to spin that it won’t impact the race. Well, the data speaks for itself.”

“The net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes nearly twice Biden’s margin. So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple,” writes Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio in a memo with a table showing their internal polling data of RFK Jr fans’ second choices.

The first thing that sticks out is that this is convoluted as shit. Like Febreze-io really bent over backwards to show the net change in a percentage what was already a percentage and then walk through that in written sentences to arrive at it would have been a 41,000 vote net gain assuming “a 2020 turnout model” in Arizona that no pollster should be assuming now that the Dem candidate is not the same as in 2020. The second is what isn’t here, and the evident reason why Tony Fabs had to squeeze this lemon so goddamned hard: There’s no actual topline Harris vs Trump number.

Weird, right? Assume this is the most recent internal poll set and say they were tied or the Orange God Emperor was slightly ahead of Harris across the swing states but Kennedy was taking the percentages of the percentages above. Then all you’d need to do is some really basic arithmetic to express quantifiably just how good the news is “for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.” That would be much plainer and simpler than this exercise in creative fucking accounting.

We could allow a little benefit of the doubt here and that internal polling is definitionally supposed to remain internal but Fabs can disclose what he pleases, when he pleases, irrespective of what the topline says. But then that would require us to ignore that Fabs never actually asserted it put Trump up over the top – or even tied the race – in these swing states. He just said it theoretically would have been more than the 2020 delta between Donald and Biden in Arizona in Georgia.

So we’ll just say it: Their internal polling must be really fucking bad news for the Orange God Emperor. Possibly at least as bad as it was for Joe Biden two months ago when we got all those leaks about how his team were sniping at each other and trying to hide the worst data from him.