“A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for US Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district finds 48 percent of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46 percent support Democrat Aftyn Behn. Two percent plan to vote for one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5 percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Epps’ overall support increases to 49 percent, and Behn to 47 percent,” says National Zero’s favorite pollster in a write-up on their test of the Trump +22 district’s December 2 special to finish out the term of now-resigned MAGA philanderer Mark Green.

Last month Emerson put Dem New Jersey Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Shittarelli 49 to 48 percent, five days before she won by 56.6 to 42.8 percent, so that was a 12.8 percent miss. In Virginia, where the college’s final poll put Dem Gov-Elect Abigail Spanberger up 55 to 44 percent over MAGA Lt Gov Winsome Sears was not as bad of a miss but still off by 4.2 as Spanberger’s final tally was 57.5 to Earle-Sears’s 42.3 percent. In New York City it’s a little trickier as their poll finding now-Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani at 50 percent to disgraced former Gov Andrew Cuomo’s 25 percent and Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 21 percent did nail Mamdani’s 50.4 percent bare majority win. At the same time Emerson massively oversold Sliwa and undersold Cuomo, who finished in second with 41.6 percent to Sliwa’s 7.1 percent, so that was still technically a 13.9 percent miss in favor of a Republican. The pollster used to only be good for mid-single-digits pro-GOP tilt.

Now none of this means Tennessee Dem state Representative Aftyn Behn has this in the bag despite Emerson’s demonstrated pattern of “reliability” in non-presidential years. In fact you should still expect her to lose given the recent surge of MAGA attention and right wing media circlejerking about some comments she made God knows when over Nashville’s country scene (lol).

And yet they’re taking it deadly seriously enough that Trump tweeted this on Tuesday:

I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person. You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 25, 2025

“PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement. Polls close at 12 PM NOON in most of TN-07, and every vote counts. IF YOU ARE IN LINE BY 12 PM, STAY IN LINE, AND THEY MUST LET YOU VOTE! TN-07: Early Voting ends November 26th, and Election Day is December 2nd. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” the fat bastard continued after the cutoff, forced to call attention to a race in a district he won by 22 percent. Meanwhile the Bulwark reports an ad for Van Epps didn’t even say he’s a Republican.

Dems flipping or not flipping this seat isn’t materially going to change the situation in the House, it still sucks for Jesus Dork Mike Johnson no matter what and it’s just a matter of whether it sucks a little more or a little less. However if, as seems likely, that Behn loses in a single-digit squeaker it could be interpreted as a signal that Trump +5 or even Trump +10 districts might not be so safe next year and that the already deeply miserable GOP incumbents should cut their losses.