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The “polls are tightening” narrative is overblown

“The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown out. Today, there seems to be a continued overcorrection of Trump’s chances in 2020. Not only do more Americans than not think Trump will win, but the betting markets have Biden only as a nominal favorite. None of these interpretations of the data are likely correct. Trump may very well defeat Biden, but it’s not the most likely outcome. While caution in interpreting polling data and recognizing that they are capturing only a moment in time is good, downright dismissing it is not the right answer. Fortunately, most analysts I know are doing no such thing. They recognize that Biden is a favorite, but acknowledge that there is the possibility that Trump can win. Whether Trump’s chance shrinks or grows over the next few weeks will be largely dependent on whether the race shifts following the conventions. Keep in mind that absentee ballots begin getting sent out in North Carolina later this week and that many people will be voting by mail this year. If Biden continues to hold a clear advantage in the polls over the next few weeks, Trump’s chances will begin to slide significantly” – Harry Enten.

Created by potrace 1.16, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2019

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