Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 42% on the the generic ballot question of the purportedly gold-standard Grinnell College/Selzer poll survey in September. For comparison the September 2018 survey found Dems ahead 45% to 42%, the year they crushed the GOP in the House.
The same survey also found a pretty shitty 36% approval rating for President Joe Biden nationally. “If voters who refuse to align with either major political party are the definition of swing voters, for now, they are swinging toward Democratic candidates,” said J. Ann Selzer of Selzer and Company. “But not by much. It’s clear the president’s performance is not driving the women’s vote in the generic House race. Biden’s approval/disapproval rating among women who are likely to vote is even (46% approve, 46% disapprove), and 47% approve to 48% disapprove among suburban women voters. But among these same groups, Democratic candidates have a double-digit edge.”