“A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for US Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district finds 48 percent of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46 percent support Democrat Aftyn Behn. Two percent plan to vote for one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5 percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Epps’ overall support increases to 49 percent, and Behn to 47 percent,” says National Zero’s favorite pollster in a write-up on their test of the Trump +22 district’s December 2 special to finish out the term of now-resigned MAGA philanderer Mark Green.
Last month Emerson put Dem New Jersey Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Shittarelli 49 to 48 percent, five days before she won by 56.6 to 42.8 percent, so that was a 12.8 percent miss. In Virginia, where the college’s final poll put Dem Gov-Elect Abigail Spanberger up 55 to 44 percent over MAGA Lt Gov Winsome Sears was not as bad of a miss but still off by 4.2 as Spanberger’s final tally was 57.5 to Earle-Sears’s 42.3 percent. In New York City it’s a little trickier as their poll finding now-Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani at 50 percent to disgraced former Gov Andrew Cuomo’s 25 percent and Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 21 percent did nail Mamdani’s 50.4 percent bare majority win. At the same time Emerson massively oversold Sliwa and undersold Cuomo, who finished in second with 41.6 percent to Sliwa’s 7.1 percent, so that was still technically a 13.9 percent miss in favor of a Republican. The pollster used to only be good for mid-single-digits pro-GOP tilt.
Now none of this means Tennessee Dem state Representative Aftyn Behn has this in the bag despite Emerson’s demonstrated pattern of “reliability” in non-presidential years. In fact you should still expect her to lose given the recent surge of MAGA attention and right wing media circlejerking about some comments she made God knows when over Nashville’s country scene (lol).