Nate Cohn: “Trump still needs something more than 2016. Mr. Trump’s modest consolidation of presumably disaffected Republican-leaning voters doesn’t do much to change the big picture. As I wrote this morning, he still needs a bigger polling miss than in 2016. While Mr. Biden would win a clear national and Electoral College victory if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016, the race would still be fairly competitive, in a certain sense. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and Georgia would all be decided by about a point or less. If the polls were off by a bit more, Mr. Trump would claim the narrowest of victories in the Electoral College, despite a significant deficit in the national vote. Still, that’s not a great path.”

“Electoral College edge. The real reason Mr. Trump still has an outside shot is simple: As in the final tallies of 2016, he still has a relative advantage in the states likeliest to decide the election compared with the nation as a whole. If you go down the list of states from best to worst for Mr. Biden, you’ll find that his 270th electoral vote would come from Pennsylvania, where he leads by just over five points. That’s a serious deficit for Mr. Trump, but it’s a lot better than his eight-plus-point deficit in the national vote. If Pennsylvania was Biden plus-8, like Michigan or the nation, it would be really hard to see a path for the president.”