“Despite the death of the judicial filibuster, Senate Democrats can probably delay a vote on Trump’s nominee until after the election. Even a rubber-stamp Senate can’t put together instant confirmation hearings. And imperiled Republicans such as Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham presumably want to spend the last two weeks before the election campaigning rather than banging a gavel in Washington. With the Democrats now favored to win back the current 53-to-47 Republican Senate, the November 3 results could change everything.”

“McConnell’s power in the GOP caucus has always rested on his ability to steer campaign funds and political support to Republican senators. But would the taciturn 78-year-old McConnell maintain his clout if he loses his Senate majority in November? Remember, not all Senate Republicans share McConnell’s Ahab-like obsession with the federal judiciary. Things really become tight for McConnell if a Democratic Senate sweep includes Mark Kelly, who is favored to defeat Arizona Senator Martha McSally. Because McSally was appointed to temporarily fill John McCain’s seat, Arizona law suggests that Kelly could take office as early as November 30, reducing the GOP margin in the lame-duck Senate to 52-to-48. Assume that Murkowski and hopefully Mitt Romney oppose a rump-session Trump appointee on grounds of fairness. Suddenly, we’re at a 50-50 Senate if Kelly wins in Arizona. Under this scenario, would likely GOP electoral casualties like Susan Collins in Maine and Colorado’s Cory Gardner stick with McConnell, even if the majority leader played a major role in costing them their seats? And what of Republican senators who may be facing tough races in 2022 like Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Rob Portman of Ohio?” – Walter Shapiro.